Foretelling The Futures

9 August 2004

Guessing or gambling in futures contracts is not something I’m qualified to do. However, I invest with someone who knows that business well. He has now raised his bet against the future strength of the dollar to $19 billion. You can read what Reuters is reporting here. The back-drop for all of this is best understood by reading Bloomberg’s news release.

Also, note that this comes in the face of oil prices approaching $45 a barrel. As a nation, we are in debt. As individuals, many are in debt. A higher percentage of our cars are gas guzzlers, and we live in homes that are palaces by global standards. Not knowing what else to do, many executives are outsourcing service and production work to other countries in their endless search for quick fixes and short-term profits. Some of these events, taken to the next level, will converge to form a ”perfect storm” of economic impacts that could make each of the next twenty years resemble the meltdown of 2000.

Even though some 1200 to 1500 A-shares of Berkshire Hathaway will be sold over the next two years, I’m standing by my investment and adding to it when (and if) it goes ”on sale.”

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