Here We Go...

8 April 2002


Iraq announced a halt to oil exports for 30 days or until Israel withdraws from Palestinian territories. [Wall Street Journal]
The U.S. remains dependent upon foreign oil. We are driving gas guzzling vehicles at a level unsurpassed by historical consumption. The Middle East is as volatile as any time in recent memory.
IBM has warned of lower revenue and earnings. Unemployment has surprised many economists in the last couple of weeks.
The investment/dot com bubble that carried us through the late 1990’s has created an impression that castles can be built to the sky. The facts say that the U.S. markets have historical averages of 10-12% per year. Grab your calculator and take a look at what kind of returns are required to return to a 10% historical average after 8 years of 20% returns. Quick answer: 8 years at 0% or 4 years at a loss of 10% each year.
Get ready…we’re only 7 months removed from 9-11-01. Stay positive and optimistic, but plan with facts – not fervor!

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