Capitulation Has Been Overworked

13 October 2002


Investing by the video generation has been chronicled on CNNfn and CNBC. They’ve used ’capitulation’ to describe a time when all the stock investors bail out, sell everything and move their money to savings accounts or something else they consider ’safe.’ As always, they use this word as if there will be a single trading day when ’capitulation’ will be obvious. Not so.
Recent trading activity shows that with each uptick in the stock market, some investors bail out of the market at the new ’higher’ price. From this behavior we get part of the reason for the dramatic (i.e. 200-300 point) swings in the DJIA. However, this repeated pattern is steadily removing more and more of the ’bubble investors’ from the market.

Waiting for a Big Rebound in Profits? Wait Longer. Corporate profits season goes into full swing this week, but results for the third quarter and the outlook for the fourth are not likely to be upbeat. By Jonathan Fuerbringer. [New York Times: Business]

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